| Canada - real estate
industry - Viewpoint 1994: Real Estate Value Trends - Industry Overview
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The Conference Board of Canada has predicted
that the Canadian economy will grow by 3% in 1994, suggesting that a fragile
expansion phase of the cycle is now under way. The dichotomy between a
sluggish domestic economy and robust export performance is expected to
continue; however, the gap between domestic spending and exports will
not be as wide as in 1993. The domestic economy will continue to be restrained
by restrictive fiscal policy, especially at the provincial level. Slow
employment growth is expected and the unemployment rate will remain above
11% throughout 1994.
A more even distribution of growth is anticipated across the country
as the performance gap between the domestic and foreign sectors narrows.
This especially relates to central Canada and the West Coast. As consumption
and housing picks up in Ontario and Quebec, decline in Alberta's revived
oil patch and British Columbia's over-heated housing market will help
to equalize the relative performance in Canada's larger provinces. Smaller
provinces will exhibit varying degrees of economic success in 1994,
as various unique factors drive their economies.
In Atlantic Canada, the provinces of Newfoundland and Nova Scotia will
see limited economic growth in 1994, due primarily to the closure of
the fisheries in both provinces. While the Hibernia offshore drilling
project and enhanced oil recovery in Nova Scotia should provide some
economic stimulation, the GDP in both provinces will grow by less than
2% in 1994. The economic outlook is much better for the provinces of
Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick. Prince Edward Island will get
a significant boost from the Fixed-Link project, while New Brunswick's
more diversified economy will continue to benefit from the lower Canadian
dollar and the recovery that is under way in the northeastern United
States.
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